Reasonable Hygiene Curves on COVID-19 (CORONAVIRUS) Charts

 

A few days ago I shared some data that showed that Spain was following the same path as Italy.
That is, despite the fact that Italy was ten times more affected, the growth in the daily number of cases was almost identical.
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It took Italy 6 days to go from 150 to 1,000 cases and Spain has taken exactly the same time. Now, March 13, Spain has just exceeded 4,000 cases.
But why was it so predictable? Because we have similar societies with similar disease control measures, an identical human biology, and an identical virus.
The results can be basically predicted. When Spain reached 150 cases, the point of critical mass was reached, that is, the moment in which the contagion between countries occurs in a very similar way.
Because when you go from one to ten cases, and from ten cases to a hundred, the behavior is difficult to predict since each individual behaves very differently. But, once you have a critical mass, randomness is removed. The time it takes to go from 150 to 1,000 or 1,000 to 10,000 cases in a similar set of circumstances will be quite similar in different places and at different times.
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The similarities between Italy and Spain are not a unique case. In fact, the Italian trajectory is the same as that followed by outbreaks of the disease in most Western European countries and in the United States. The only difference is that Italy is a few days ahead. The United States, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Denmark seem to be on the same trajectory.
Now, let’s compare this to the outbreak in China, excluding Hubei province. These gray lines in the graph show the Chinese provinces. Disease control measures, social distancing, and active case detection kept cases to a minimum. So there is some hope in China’s trajectory. There is also some hope from other countries. Singapore and Japan exceeded 150 cases, but managed to keep growth to a minimum.
And there is South Korea, despite reaching quite high numbers, since then they have taken quite effective measures to control the outbreak. There are many variables that we don’t know about, such as the number of people who get infected and who don’t get tested. What we do know is that reactive measures are very ineffective in controlling Covid-19.
What we have seen in China is that, outside of Hubei, the provinces were able to keep the number of cases relatively low by taking very proactive and drastic measures. What we have seen so far in the outbreak in Europe and the US, is that these reactive measures, slowly reacting slowly with incremental stops, confinements, quarantines, do not appear to have been sufficient to stem the tide of the outbreak.
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What we do know about this disease is that it can spread very quickly in a population and that it has a very high mortality rate among especially vulnerable people. And we also know that it has the capacity to saturate and oversaturate health services. So, even if it doesn’t kill you directly, it can kill you or others by taking health systems beyond their capabilities. So my message, after examining this data, is that the scenario is changing rapidly. We need to take this very seriously. Until now we have not taken it seriously enough.
The Coronavirus response has shown us a path forward, we just need to have the courage to break from the status quo and go down it. My Prayers and thoughts are with you as we sail through this very tough time of COVID-19 Pandemic.
I have had to sit back and re-evaluate how we should all be making money online, the current situation is definitely an eye opener for me.gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw== - Reasonable Hygiene Curves on COVID-19 (CORONAVIRUS) Charts
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